The Curmudgeonly Professor's Daily Recession Watch: February 3 2009

Economic analysts and historians will find no lack of employment or opportunties for at least a century or more by dissecting the Great Economic Collapse of the early 21^st century.  Doctoral dissertations will be written by the score.  Papers will be delivered passionately at annual meetings of the American Economics Association with viewpoints reflecting the parable of the blind men and the elephant.  Class lectures will be updated.  Economics textbooks and economic history books will be rewritten.  From a clinical point of view, the current downturn is fascinating to monitor.  From a personal standpoint, and from the standpoint of the daily welfare of the citizens of the world, the downturn is a disaster of historic proportions.

Here are some observations from the Daily Recession Watch on February 3 2009:

• David Serchuck notes in Forbes.com today that  regional banks are expected to fail as commercial real estate values fall.  Serchuck quotes John Jacquemin, head of investment house Mooring Financial Corporation, as saying "our economy cannot be fixed, " a veritable death sentence."  Wow.  You can't get any more pessimistic than that.  See the article here.
• Denny's announced free Grand Slam breakfasts today (Tuesday) in a Super Bowl ad between 6:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. as reported by Trevor Hughes of the Fort Collins Coloradoan in USA Today on February 3 2009. 
•  The Salt Lake Tribune announced today, February 3, in an article by Kirsten Stewart, that Utah State University is putting all 2,995 full- and part-time University employees, "from high-paid administrators to front-line office personnel" on furlough for five days over spring break, March 9-13, taking leave without pay. Read the story here. Ouch! 
• The Utah State Department of Workforce Services has nearly doubled its staff, from 56 to 100 workers, to handle the sharp rise in new claims (126% in 4Q 08 over 4Q 07) and an 81% increase in claims in 4Q 08 over 3Q 08 according to Jasen Lee, writing in Salt Lake's Deseret News on February 3 2009.
• Clearfield High School teens are becoming more frugal with their money, and girls are looking for cheap or free prom dresses, writes Amy K. Stewart in "Frugal Formals" in Salt Lake's Deseret News on February 3 2009.
• Banks are retaining tight lending policies despite influx of bailout funds, reports Sue Kirchoff in the February 3 2009 USA Today. 
• "Neither snow nor rain" but maybe the recession will deter our nation's mail carriers on their appointed rounds.  As Dennis Cauchon reports in his article titled "A part of Americana seeks to weather economic storm" in USA Today on February 3, the Post Office is in the hole $7.9 billion the past two years and has had to borrow money to pay its bills.  Mail volume sagged 4.5% last year, a number that is expected to continue downward.  So do your duty and quit sending email and using FedEx and UPS and support Uncle Sam.  You can read the story here. Actually, I haven't been happy with the Post Office for years, but that is another matter for future rants.  So get out your crystal balls and guess what will happen today and tomorrow, spend some money today, take an optimism pill, and sit tight. We'll get out of this swamp some day, we hope sooner rather than later.